Sensex may touch 18500 if ECB, Fed ease in Sept: Ambit Cap

Global markets have been in a lack luster mode from past few sessions. All eyes are set on Jackson Hole conference scheduled on August 31and the European Central Bank (ECB) meet in September.

Source :moneycontrol.com

"If our politics holds up, we get some reforms, Jackson Hole works out and ECB plays its part, then we are looking at 7-8% on the upside."

Saurabh Mukherjea

Head of Equities

Ambit Capital

Global markets have been lackluster for the past few sessions as investors await US Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke’s comments on the US economy this Friday.

A section of investors is hoping that the Fed may announce another round of quantitative easing at the Jackson Hole conference. Such hopes will persist next month too as the European Central Bank (ECB) meets.

Saurabh Mukherjea, head of equities, Ambit Capital expects the Sensex to rally nearly 1000 points to 18500, if global central banks inject a fresh dose of liquidity. So, he suggests investors to wait for these key events play out before booking profits.

On the other hand, if the policy overhang remains in India then markets would correct maximum 5% over the next two-three weeks. "I don't think there is that much more than 5% factored into the market about reform and policy," he added.

Meanwhile, Mukherjea is bearish on the banking sector. He has a sell call on private sector banks like Axis and HDFC . He is also cautious about consumer discretionary stocks like Titan Industriesand Hero MotoCorp .

Below is the edited transcript of Mukherjea’s interview with CNBC-TV18.

Q: You guys have been playing for this upmove in the market but would you say its time to take some profits now?

A: We have been discussing this with clients over the last 2-3 days whether it is time to take some risk off the table. Whilst I still believe its worth waiting for Jackson Hole on August 31and what the European Central Banks (ECB) does in September. We are becoming more convinced about taking risk off the table in Indian banks.

Our worries are increasing by the passing week. Similarly, consumer discretionary plays such as Titan Industries, HeroMoto Corp. We have been getting fair bit of evidence from our on the ground sources that consumer spend is cracking quite comprehensively in this monsoon season.

Q: From the 17600 level on the Sensex till what level do you think the market can hold its nerve?

A: There are two scenarios clearly on the political front. If we do go into an unstable political scenario over the next two-three weeks then we will shed 5% on the back of unstable politics. I don’t think there is that much more than 5% factored into the market about reform and policy.

The other scenario is if our politics holds up, we actually get some reform, diesel price hikes in September once the monsoon session ends, Jackson Hole works out and the ECB plays its part. Then we are looking at something like an 18,500.

So, 5% on the downside and something like 7-8% on the upside. Banks are a sector, I would avoid regardless of which scenario you look at. Consumer discretionary plays it is worth getting out of some of the fully valued plays as quickly as investors can.

Q: What if Jackson Hole and the ECB disappoint this weekend? Markets do not get the liquidity they are looking for immediately at least. What could that mean in terms of a pull down?

A: The fully valued plays in consumer Titan and Jubilant Foodwork will feel some of the pressure and the other lag will come into Indian banks. However, you look at it 26% of our index being BFSI doesn’t quite stack up in an economy growing at 6%.

So, at a structural level as well that’s where big ticket concerns are building up. Large investors that I talked to are most concerned about Indian banks in our market at the moment.

Q: With respect to private sector banks, where are you the most cautious and what levels do you expect these stocks to go down to?

A: The challenge is for the more fully valued banks. An Axis Bank at two times has been a source of concern for us for some time. The more the economy drifts, the greater our concern becomes for a bank trading at two times.

In the public sector, State Bank of India is the bank we have been negative about close to two years now. In the public sector undertaking (PSU) sector that is the bank which is most exposed to a down drift in the economy and continued policy paralysis.

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http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/market-outlook/sensex-may-touch-18500-if-ecb-fed-easesept-ambit-cap-_749998.html

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Hyderabad, August 24: Here is an interesting news about Celkon Ee Tab CT-1 for technology geeks. Hyderabad based affordable mobile handset maker Celkon Mobiles launches its first tablet PC Ee Tab CT-1 coming with Anroid 4.0.3 Ice Cream Sandwitch operating System. The interesting part of this Tab is, the new slim gadget is packed with My Tutor app, which is known to be as big help for the students.

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FinMin approves 49% FDI in insurance, pension

The Finance Ministry has approved foreign direct investment in insurance and pension sectors up to 49%, reports CNBC-TV18’s Aakanksha Sethi.

Source : CNBC TV18

The Finance Ministry has approved foreign direct investment in insurance and pension sectors up to 49%, reports CNBC-TV18’s Aakanksha Sethi.

The Insurance and Pension Bills will now need Cabinet approval before coming up before Parliament.

These Bills have already made one trip to the Cabinet, but at the time it was for 26% FDI. When Pranab Mukherjee was the Finance Minister, they had gone to the Cabinet but they had deferred the decision.

With P Chidambaram now headed the finance portfolio, these bills were relooked and now the FDI limit stands at 49%.

Whether the bills will come up for Cabinet approval or not, or what decision the Cabinet takes will be a political decision. Both these bills have seen strong opposition from the Mamata Banerjee led Trinamool Congress.

But if the Cabinet clears these two bills, they will be introduced in the winter session of Parliament.

S&P says a full Spain bailout would not affect ratings

Rating agency Standard & Poor's on Wednesday said that Spain's sovereign ratings would be unaffected if the government asks for a full bailout as it struggles to meet its fiscal responsibilities.

Source: Reuters

Rating agency Standard & Poor's on Wednesday said that Spain's sovereign ratings would be unaffected if the government asks for a full bailout as it struggles to meet its fiscal responsibilities.

Spain has already asked for help for its struggling banks but has so far not asked for a full bailout, even as its 10-year government bond yields pierced 7% in recent weeks, a level many consider unsustainable.

"Should Spain decide to request a full bailout, this would, in our view, constitute an official acknowledgement that the government is facing ongoing risks to financing itself in the capital markets at sustainable rates," S&P said in a statement.

"However, we think that the potentially advantageous terms Spain could receive under a full bailout could enhance the chances of success of Spain's already ambitious and politically challenging fiscal and economic reform agenda."

S&P rates Spain BBB-plus with a negative outlook. Moody's Investors Service rates Spain Baa3, and Fitch rates the country BBB. All three of those ratings are investment grade, albeit not by much.

Finance Minister on disinvestment process

Finance Minister P Chidambaram has asked officials to expedite the process of disinvestment so that state-owned companies could hit stock markets in time and help the government achieve the target of Rs 30,000 crore in the current fiscal.

Source : PTI

Finance Minister P Chidambaram has asked officials to expedite the process of disinvestment so that state-owned companies could hit stock markets in time and help the government achieve the target of Rs 30,000 crore in the current fiscal.

This direction was given by Chidambaram at a meeting of officials recently during which Economic Affairs Secretary Arvind Mayaram and Disinvestment Secretary Mohammad Haleem Khan were present, sources said.

The meeting, they added, was called to review the progress made with regard to disinvestment and prepare a roadmap for stake sale in PSUs.

Although four months have passed in the current fiscal, the government has not been able to come out with a single public issue.

Raising adequate funds from disinvestment, sources said, was necessary to keep in check the fiscal deficit which is facing pressure due to rising food, fuel and fertiliser subsidy bill.

The government last month deferred the initial public offer (IPO) of Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Ltd (RINL) due to weak stock market conditions. The Rs 2,500-crore RINL issue was originally proposed to hit the markets in July.

The Department of Disinvestment proposes to begin the stake sale process in September.

The Union Cabinet had already cleared disinvestment in SAIL . The stake sale in blue-chips like BHEL, HAL and Oil India  is also in the pipeline.

Due to uncertain market conditions, the government in the last fiscal raised only Rs 14,000 crore from disinvestment against the target of Rs 40,000 crore.

'Ek Tha Tiger' aur '100 Crore Tha Tiger'

Salman Khan, Tiger of Rs 100 crore club has once again rockz for the fourth time . And this time he has done it in record time - five days, to be exact.

Source : IBNLive.com

Salman Khan,Tiger of  Rs 100 crore club for the fourth time proved to be 100 crore club is his fancy number. And this time he has done it in record time - five days, to be exact.

'Ek ThaTiger' is Yash Raj's first film to cross the Rs 100 crore mark and this is Khan's fourth century. He now counts himself among the likes of Aamir Khan and Ajay Devgn who are among actors whose films have crossed Rs 100 crore nett in collections.

Film trade analyst Taran Adarsh tweeted the figures on Monday. "Ek Tha Tiger is @BeingSalmanKhan's 4th century (100 cr), the other three being Dabangg (147 crore), Ready (122 crore) and Bodyguard (148 crore)," Adarsh said.

He said 'Ek Tha Tiger' has set a new record for the fastest 100 crore grosser ever. "India actual: Sun 23.06 cr. Total: 100.16 cr nett. SUPERB. Fastest 100 cr grosser ever - 5 days (Hindi films). NEW RECORD!" he said.

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The film stars Salman Khan, Katrina Kaif, Ranveer Shorey and Girish Karnad.

Alert on Economic Growth

PM warned of ratings downgrade risk by own advisers

Published On Friday, August 18, 2012 12:00 AM

Source: (Reuters)

NEW DELHI  - Advisers to the prime minister issued a stern warning to the government on Friday on the need to rein in the country's fiscal and current account deficits to avoid the risk of a credit ratings downgrade to junk status.

They urged the government to raise subsidised diesel prices and adopt measures to attract foreign investment, both of which would help ease pressure on the twin deficits and so help an economy that has shifted down several gears this year and the weak rupee.

However, economists doubted the ideas would be turned to action anytime soon.

The suggestions are "well meaning and sound," said Rajeev Malik, a senior economist at CLSA in Singapore. "But the political will to implement the solutions has been lacking. Technocrats cannot do anything about that."

India's economic growth has lost momentum due to global headwinds, sluggish policymaking and more lately worries about a drought in parts of the country. Fearful of a popular backlash, the government has failed to cut expenditure or liberalise the economy to attract investment.

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's economic advisory panel released a report that acknowledged the economic down shift, which Singh declared this week was a national security issue. However, analysts said some of the forecasts were optimistic.

The panel, for example, cut its forecast for economic growth in the year to next March (2012/13) to 6.7 percent. While that was down from a previous forecast of 7.5-8 percent, it is much higher than projections by private economists, who see growth sliding to 5.5 percent, a 10-year low.

The panel highlighted the swelling fiscal deficit as a major concern and urged the government to raise diesel prices, a long-promised policy that has failed to get political support. Indeed, diesel could exert more pressure on the budget because its use is set to spike this year as farmers turn to pumps to irrigate their fields during the drought.

"Given that ratings agencies are watching the situation, I think the budgeted fiscal deficit at 5.1 percent is a non-negotiable issue" said M. Govinda Rao, a member of the advisory panel.

Economists suggest the government is moving towards a deficit in 2012/13 of around 6 percent of GDP and credit default swap markets already price the country at junk, or non-investment grade.

Global agencies Fitch Ratings and Standard & Poor's Ratings Services this year warned that India may become the first of the BRICS group of large emerging markets to lose its investment grade rating if it did not control the fiscal and current account deficits.

The panel urged the government to raise tax revenues, including by collecting unpaid taxes. It said New Delhi should resurrect a push to allow foreign investment in supermarkets after its attempt to open up the sector flopped late last year.

This time, the foreign investment limit should be capped at 49 percent, not the 51 percent level that sparked fierce opposition, it said.

The panel's call to bring the fiscal deficit under control echoes similar comments from the central bank.

"The best way to prevent a ratings downgrade is to put in place a sustainable process of fiscal consolidation because that's the most important parameter, indicator on which that risk or threat has manifested," Deputy Governor Subir Gokarn said on Thursday.

India's current account, the broadest measure of its trade in goods and services with the rest of the world, ballooned to a record deficit of $21.7 billion or 4.5 percent of GDP in the March quarter.

The panel forecast the deficit would narrow in 2012/13 to 3.6 percent from 4.2 percent in 2011/12 off the back of lower import bills for oil and gold. But panel chief C. Rangarajan said the deficit needed to shrink to 2.5 percent. Above that level the rupee comes under pressure, a panel member said.

The panel raised its inflation forecast for the end of 2012/13 to 6.5-7 percent, up from an earlier forecast of 5-6 percent, to reflect expectations for higher food prices as monsoon rains are well below average.

"The estimates are pretty much in line with Reserve Bank of India's projections, but the growth number seems to be on the optimistic side on the assumption that agriculture growth won't be as slow as (the) market expects," said Rahul Bajoria, regional economist with Barclays in Singapore.

The panel's views are closely watched, however, because they are used by the prime minister's office to determine policy. The finance ministry produces its own estimates.

Proposal of FDI

    PM eco panel for capping FDI in multi-retail at 49%

In the face of apprehensions against FDI in multi-brand retail, Prime Minister's Economic Advisory Council (PMEAC) today suggested that foreign investment in the sector be capped at 49%.

The Cabinet on November 24, had decided to allow 51% foreign direct investment (FDI) in multi-brand retail.

However, the decision could not be implemented following strong opposition from key UPA constituent Trinamool Congress and several chief ministers.

"Keeping in view the apprehensions against FDI in multi-brand retail, to begin with FDI up to 49% may be allowed in this sector," PMEAC, headed by C Rangarajan said, in its 'Economic Outlook for 2012-13'.

It said those states which are receptive to this idea may implement the decision. However, before coming out with the decision, its attractiveness may be ascertained with top international retailers and "it should be operationally so
done that the announcement is met with investor announcements in favour of the same".

The government announcement should be followed immediately by filing of applications, approvals and early kick-off in the states which are in favour of global retailers, it said.

It said that though the quantum of investment that may be forthcoming immediately "may not be large, permitting FDI in retail will help send the right signals on the commitment of the government to take the reform process forward".

PMEAC also called for FDI liberalisation in aviation sector.

The council said that the Indian aviation industry today has established players.

"However, they need infusion of capital and technology to grow to the next level," it said adding foreign airlines should be allowed to pick up 49% stake in the domestic players.

Given the current difficulties of the domestic airlines, which have high costs on account of taxation applicable to aviation turbine fuel, maintenance, repair and overhaul, the immediate prospects for revival of the sector may depend on favourable consideration of concession on these by the Finance Ministry, it added.

Currently FDI up to 49% by FIIs and other overseas investors is allowed but foreign airlines are barred from investing in the Indian carriers.